Personal data product
NCAA 2026 Bracket Model
Krystian built an interactive bracket model from public basketball data, evaluated MLX models, a production ensemble, and 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
- Source data
- Matchup features
- Model ensemble
- Simulation + UI
Interactive product
Explore the full model room.
Test bracket paths, title odds, upset scenarios, model notes, and all 68 teams in the complete data product.
Open full interactive model
Exact role
Independent builder
Current status
Shipped
2026
Problem
What needed to change
I wanted a practical office-pool decision tool that went beyond gut picks by combining public basketball data, modeling, simulation, and a readable product interface.
Users
Who the system serves
Bracket-pool participants and people reviewing the model, simulation, and interface.
Team context
Where I fit
Independent build with end-to-end ownership from source collection and cleanup through modeling, simulation, and the interactive interface.
Important technical decision
Compare model approaches, use an ensemble for production picks, and expose confidence and bracket paths instead of a bare prediction list.
Tradeoff or limitation
Validation accuracy and simulation output support comparison; they do not guarantee tournament outcomes.
Implementation
What I personally owned
- Owned the full workflow from data sourcing and cleanup through modeling, simulation, evaluation, and UI packaging.
- Built the static interactive interface around the model outputs rather than leaving them in notebooks.
Constraints
Hard parts that shaped the work
- Collected and normalized data from NCAA NET, AP Top 25, Sports Reference, Bracket Matrix, official bracket, schedules, logs, boxscores, and historical tournament rows.
- Compared MLX logistic baselines, priors, a tree benchmark, and a production ensemble.
- Resolved the full field and turned probabilistic model outputs into readable bracket decisions.
Shipped result
What exists now
- Office-pool decision tool and playful portfolio UI.
- 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations.
- Bracket paths, title odds, upset boards, model notes, and team search.
Result
Verified result and current state
- The shipped lab makes the model inputs, evaluation result, simulations, bracket paths, and confidence outputs visible in one interface.
Technical scope